When Will Baseball Season Begin?

I think the Whites beat the Blues today, unless that was a rerun. No doubt you were all dying to know. The crowd went wild.

The usual fickle fans in expensive seats behind home plate, talking on their cell phones. So annoying.

Oh, wait...

By Anthony Castrovince @castrovince
July 14, 2020

As the 2010s evolved, we saw the role of the starting pitcher whittled down to a shell of what it once was. The complete game became an endangered species, bullpens were prioritized, and the opener strategy was introduced. It made you wonder if we were steamrolling toward a situation in which the traditional rotation, as we knew it, would be eradicated altogether.

Then 2019 happened. Bullpens across the game blew up (relievers’ collective 4.43 ERA was the highest in 19 years and the 11th highest in history), and it was a Nationals club that largely revolved around its rotation that claimed the World Series crown. It was a rotation revival, of sorts.

In this shortened 2020 season, starters, at large, will not be fully up to speed by Opening Day. But the standings in this sprint to the finish won’t be forgiving to teams with rotation flaws that overtax the ‘pen.

So to be deep in the rotation is to be deep where it matters most. Following on the heels of Monday’s list of the top 10 lineups in MLB, here are the top 10 rotations.

Note that one stat frequently cited in this piece is ERA+, which normalizes a player’s ERA across the Majors while accounting for ballparks pitched in and opponents faced. A league-average ERA+ is 100, so 120 is 20 percent better than league average and 80 is 20 percent worse. You can learn more about this stat and others in my book, “A Fan’s Guide to Baseball Analytics.”

1 -- Nationals

1) Max Scherzer, RHP
2) Stephen Strasburg, RHP
3) Patrick Corbin, LHP
4) Aníbal Sánchez, RHP
5) Austin Voth, RHP

The 102 1/3 innings Washington got from its great rotation last October were the most by a World Series champion in a single postseason since the D-backs’ 120 1/3 innings in 2001. In ordinary circumstances, a group that has taken on that kind of workload one year is a source of concern the next. But the shortened schedule and the rest afforded the Nats’ arms seemingly alters that dynamic.

Scherzer (157), Corbin (141) and Strasburg (138) all ranked in the top 15 among qualified pitchers in ERA+ last season, with 100, again, being MLB average. Sánchez (119) was tied for 25th. The Nats’ rotation fades into greater uncertainty from there (Joe Ross elected not to play in 2020), but that’s a fearsome foursome to get you started.


2 -- Rays

1) Charlie Morton, RHP
2) Blake Snell, LHP
3) Tyler Glasnow, RHP
4) Ryan Yarbrough, LHP
5) Yonny Chirinos, RHP

The team that first unleashed the opener upon the world might no longer have much of a need for that concept. This rotation has as much potential as any in MLB.

Morton, as advertised, brought veteran credibility to this staff in 2019 -- and finished third in AL Cy Young Award voting, to boot. Snell is the 2018 AL Cy Young winner. Glasnow is listed as the No. 3, for now, but has clear ace potential. Forearm tightness limited him in 2019, but he had a ridiculous 1.78 ERA, 250 ERA+ and 0.89 WHIP in 60 2/3 innings. Yarbrough has quietly posted a respectable 106 ERA+ while mostly following the opener the past two years, and now he’s likely to serve as a more traditional starter. Brendan McKay (No. 15 overall on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects) could also be in the mix.


3 -- Reds

1) Luis Castillo, RHP
2) Sonny Gray, RHP
3) Trevor Bauer, RHP
4) Wade Miley, LHP
5) Anthony DeSclafani, RHP

The Reds wasted what was, surprisingly, one of the better starting staffs in MLB last season, as both Gray and Castillo’s emergence were shrouded by an anemic offense. Cincinnati spent all winter trying to boost the bats, but not before proactively adding Bauer at last summer’s Trade Deadline and bringing in Miley via free agency to add a lefty option with another veteran touch.

Castillo, whose changeup is not safe for work, might be this Cy Young-less franchise’s best shot at the award, if he can limit the walks. But the real key to this staff will be Gray maintaining what he did in 2019 (2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and Bauer shaking off a shaky start to his Cincy tenure and returning to his 2018 form (2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). DeSclafani, in a contract year, is not to be ignored, as he had a solid 117 ERA+ in 166 2/3 innings last year.


4 -- Indians

1) Shane Bieber, RHP
2) Mike Clevinger, RHP
3) Carlos Carrasco, RHP
4) Adam Plutko, RHP
5) Zach Plesac, RHP

To trade away Bauer and Corey Kluber in the span of five months last year and still make this list is a testament to the pitching factory the Indians have put together. They had some bumps and bruises in Spring Training Version 1.0 -- Clevinger had left knee surgery and Carrasco had right elbow inflammation -- but are back up and running now.

Clevinger’s 152 ERA+ over the past three seasons is the fifth-best among those with at least 400 innings pitched, and Bieber’s ceiling might be even higher. Plesac (124 ERA+ in 115 2/3 innings in 2019) and Aaron Civale (202 ERA+ in 57 2/3 innings) flourished in unexpected opportunities last year, and the Indians have more depth options (most notably, Civale) on their 60-man list.


5 -- Dodgers

1) Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2) Walker Buehler, RHP
3) Julio Urías, LHP
4) Alex Wood, LHP
5) Ross Stripling, RHP

The Dodgers lost a major piece of their rotation when Hyun-Jin Ryu departed in free agency after a career year, and David Price has elected not to play in 2020. But this team has depth everywhere, the rotation included. In fact, FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement projections rate Los Angeles as the fourth-best starting set in MLB.

Buehler is a stud (135 ERA+ in 319 2/3 innings over the last two seasons) who might be ready to figure prominently in the NL Cy Young Award conversation. Kershaw is not the ace among aces he once was, but he still offers elite command and great results (137 ERA+ in 2019). Urías might be ready to make the leap, as he finally has a chance to put his elite, contact-limiting stuff to use in a rotation role. And though Dustin May (No. 23 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100) is not yet listed here, the redheaded right-hander with the extraordinary cutter is coming soon to a big league mound near you.


6 -- Yankees

1) Gerrit Cole, RHP
2) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
3) James Paxton, LHP
4) J.A. Happ, LHP
5) Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Losing Luis Severino for 2020 is a big deal. Of course, so is adding Cole, who is probably the odds-on AL Cy Young Award favorite. And the delay has allowed Paxton to potentially be ready for the start of the season despite February back surgery.

Paxton (116 ERA+ in 150 2/3 innings) and Tanaka (100 ERA+ in 182 innings), who suffered a mild concussion when he was struck by a comebacker in Summer Camp, are both in a contract year. Happ is capable of league-average output, at the least, so there is a solid base beyond Cole. Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt, both of whom are on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects list (No. 92 and No. 88, respectively), are intriguing depth options. Cole no longer has the bona fide co-ace he did in Houston, but he obviously raises the floor for this group a great deal even with Severino on the shelf.


7 -- Rangers

1) Lance Lynn, RHP
2) Mike Minor, LHP
3) Corey Kluber, RHP
4) Kyle Gibson, RHP
5) Jordan Lyles, RHP

Texas looked around at the way starting pitching returned to prominence in the postseason last year and said, “We want some of that.” The Rangers bought low on Kluber after an injury-riddled 2019 that limited him to seven starts, bought in on the potential of Gibson’s three-pitch mix a year removed from him posting a 3.62 ERA and 118 ERA+ in 196 2/3 innings in Minnesota in 2018 and landed Lyles on the heels of him logging a 2.45 ERA in 58 2/3 innings after a mid-2019 trade from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee.

Add all of that to the oddly near-identical output the Rangers got from Minor (3.59 ERA, 144 ERA+ in 208 1/3 innings) and Lynn (3.67 ERA, 141 ERA+ in 208 1/3 innings), and you have the seeds of what could be a top-flight starting five, with former top prospect Kolby Allard an important depth piece.


8 -- Mets

1) Jacob deGrom, RHP
2) Marcus Stroman, RHP
3) Rick Porcello, RHP
4) Steven Matz, LHP
5) Michael Wacha, RHP

If this rotation were just two-time-reigning NL Cy Young Award winner deGrom and then four empty Shake Shack bags, it might still merit a mention on this list. But, of course, the Mets have potential beyond deGrom, even with Noah Syndergaard on the shelf following Tommy John surgery.

Stroman saw his strikeout rate increase after the move to the Mets last summer, but he’s still ultimately a sinkerballer dependent on his defense. Bottom line is he’s capable of giving the Mets quality innings every fifth day. Porcello has a durable track record, and while he might never again be as good as he was in his AL Cy Young Award season in Boston in 2016, he’s a quality No. 3. Matz and offseason acquisition Wacha are the wild cards who will determine whether the Mets have a great rotation in 2020 or merely a good one.

9 -- Astros

1) Justin Verlander, RHP
2) Zack Greinke, RHP
3) Lance McCullers Jr., RHP
4) Jose Urquidy, RHP
5) Josh James, RHP

The Astros belong in the top 10. However, their position is possibly more precarious than some others on this list because the rotation is fronted by a 37-year-old Verlander (coming off groin surgery and a lat issue) and a 36-year-old Greinke, to go along with real questions about depth should anything go south. McCullers is coming back from Tommy John surgery, top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley experienced shoulder fatigue and had a 7.99 ERA in the Minors last year, and it’s impossible to know if anyone from a group featuring Cionel Perez, Framber Valdez and Rogelio Armenteros will break out.

But if Verlander and Greinke perform to their norms, McCullers returns to form, and Urquidy and James reach their potentials, this is still a very stout group.


10 -- Cardinals

1) Jack Flaherty, RHP
2) Dakota Hudson, RHP
3) Adam Wainwright, RHP
4) Miles Mikolas, RHP
5) Carlos Martínez, RHP

Flaherty emerged as one of the most electric starters in baseball last season, with a 2.75 ERA and NL-best 0.97 WHIP in 196 1/3 innings, and an absurd 0.91 ERA in the season’s second half. Hudson had a 3.35 ERA and 128 ERA+ in 33 appearances and might be on the cusp of putting it all together, as he had 14 starts in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs in six or more innings. League-average output from Wainwright again in 2020 is really all the Cards need with so much excellence elsewhere.

Though Mikolas’ right flexor tendon strain yanked him out of availability for the originally scheduled Opening Day, he’s back in the mix. Martínez served as the closer last year and could return to the ‘pen. Other options for that spot include Kwang Hyun Kim, a veteran pitcher signed from Korea, who was having a strong spring displaying a deep pitch mix and poise before the shutdown. Daniel Ponce de Leon is another intriguing rotation option. Lots of depth here.

Shildt, Mikolas on 2020 season
Jul 12, 2020 · 0:51
Shildt, Mikolas on 2020 season
Honorable mentions
Depending on what you prioritize -- upside, experience, durability, etc. -- there are a number of teams who could mount an argument for this list either now or by year’s end.

The A’s, Braves and Padres, for instance, have as much upside as anybody, with excellent young arms aplenty -- from Jesús Luzardo and A.J. Puk in Oakland to Max Fried and 2019 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Mike Soroka in Atlanta to Chris Paddack and MacKenzie Gore in San Diego. It can be difficult to project what that youth will deliver moving forward, but the ceiling for those groups is high. Oakland actually had the eighth-best starters’ ERA in MLB in 2019, so it might have the strongest argument to be in the top 10 already.

The D-backs added a ton of experience via Madison Bumgarner to a group in which Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver shined in small samples last year. The Phillies have a potentially dynamic 1-2 punch up top with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Lastly, the Cubs’ group doesn’t have age on its side but does still possess a lot of pedigree.

By Anthony Castrovince @castrovince
July 14, 2020

Bullpens are flaky. They are the friend who says they’ll meet you for happy hour but bails at the last minute. The cable guy who doesn’t show up as planned between 1 and 4 p.m. The first date that seemingly goes great but doesn’t call you back.

Filled as they are with pitchers who often experience wild variations in performance from year to year, bullpens are a baseball team’s maddening, here-today, gone-tomorrow, make-or-break unit -- and anybody who thinks they know the exact recipe to building a great one is not to be trusted.

So accurately predicting which teams will have the best bullpens in advance of the season is pretty much impossible. But after addressing the top 10 lineups and top 10 rotations earlier this week, we might as well take some guesses here as we close out this series of suppositions.

Here are the top 10 ‘pens … I think.

1 -- Yankees
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Primary setup men: Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle

This seems like the safest pick for the top spot for now. Chapman is recovering from COVID-19 as I write this and doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, but the combo of his fastball and slider was menacing enough to lead to a 36.2 percent strikeout rate in 2019. Among relievers with at least 40 innings pitched last season, Ottavino (235), Britton (234) and Chapman (202) ranked in the top 13 on the ERA+ leaderboard.

That doesn’t even mention Kahnle, who had 42 hitless and scoreless appearances in 2019, or Chad Green, whose effectiveness waned in ’19 but who had a 2.18 ERA and 200 ERA+ in 144 2/3 innings between ’18 and ’19. And New York has other interesting arms, like Luis Cessa and Jonathan Loaisiga who could fill meaningful roles.

So the Yankees should have a good bullpen ... I think.

2 -- Padres
Closer: Kirby Yates
Primary setup men: Emilio Pagán, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen

The offseason acquisitions of Pomeranz (1.88 ERA and 47.2 percent strikeout rate in 28 relief appearances last year) and Pagán (2.31 ERA, 192 ERA+, 7.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 66 appearances) would give the Padres a pretty obvious one-two punch to employ in the eighth and ninth innings. But San Diego already had Yates, who was arguably baseball’s best closer in 2019 -- a 1.19 ERA, 358 ERA+, 41 saves and a 0.89 WHIP in 60 2/3 innings.

That fearsome threesome would be enough to earn the Padres a prominent spot on this list. But the club is also in possession of a bunch of valuable depth pieces in Stammen, Matt Strahm and others. The farm system is stacked with pitching depth that could be applied to the 'pen if San Diego is in the race.

So the beefed-up Padres should have a good bullpen ... I think.

3 -- Brewers
Closer: Josh Hader
Primary setup men: Brent Suter, David Phelps, Corey Knebel

The key here, of course, is Hader, who is the two-time reigning National League Reliever of the Year Award winner. His rate of homers allowed spiked in 2019, but he nonetheless had a 2.62 ERA, 170 ERA+, 47.8 percent strikeout rate and a 0.80 WHIP in 75 2/3 innings while getting north of three outs on 23 different occasions. He remains one of baseball’s biggest weapons, and his presence alone is enough to earn the Brew Crew a spot on this list.


Surrounding Hader, the Brewers added Phelps in the offseason after he made a solid return from Tommy John last year, converted starter Freddy Peralta has emerged as an important 'pen piece after striking out 69 batters in 49 1/3 relief innings last year, and lefty Suter also came back from Tommy John and was dominant in 18 1/3 relief innings. Milwaukee also has a workhorse in Alex Claudio, who made 83 appearances last year, and another potential comeback story in former All-Star closer Knebel, who is returning from Tommy John.

So the Hader-led Brewers should have a good bullpen ... I think.

4 -- Rays
Closer: Nick Anderson
Primary setup men: Diego Castillo, José Alvarado, Colin Poche

Though the Rays traded Pagán on the heels of his breakthrough year, they retain most of a 'pen that had a breakthrough of its own in the second half last season. Anderson arrived in a mid-2019 trade from Miami and proceeded to strike out 41 batters with just two walks in 21 1/3 innings, and his 37.9 percent whiff rate for the season was tied for fifth in MLB (min. 500 swings generated). Castillo struck out 31.1 percent of the batters he faced in the second half, Poche allowed just a .222 slugging percentage in his last 22 innings and the well-traveled Oliver Drake settled in as a lefty-killer.


If Alvarado can bounce back to his 2018 level, the Rays will be in even better shape. For now, it’s clear they have a good bullpen ... I think.

5 -- Twins
Closer: Taylor Rogers
Primary setup men: Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard

This is a group that evolved over the course of 2019 and, by season’s end, it was a bona fide strength. The left-handed Rogers (2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 30 saves) assumed the closer’s role with a heavy dose of strikeouts (32.4 percent of plate appearances) and ground balls (50.6 percent of balls in play). May and Duffey were flamed-out depth starters who became fire-breathing monsters in the bullpen in the second half (Duffey had a 42 percent strikeout rate and May limited opponents to a .573 OPS).


Add in the veteran experience of Sergio Romo and Clippard -- the former still living off one of the better sliders in baseball and the latter still in possession of a confounding changeup -- and the Twins should have a good bullpen ... I think.

6 -- Braves
Closer: Mark Melancon
Primary setup men: Will Smith, Shane Greene, Darren O'Day

Melancon, who has a 119 ERA+ across 106 1/3 innings the past two seasons, will be officially labeled as the closer, but Smith, who had a 151 ERA+ in 118 1/3 innings in that same timeframe, could handle high-leverage situations in just about any inning, as long as his bout with COVID-19 does not significantly disrupt his season. Chris Martin had a sparkling 13.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55 2/3 innings last season between Texas and Atlanta. And while Greene was not able to maintain the All-Star level he had reached in Detroit earlier in the season after the Trade Deadline deal, he nonetheless had a 2.30 ERA and 206 ERA+ in 65 appearances on the year. The Braves also retain Luke Jackson, who was ill-suited to the closer role on an emergency basis last year but is still capable of quality innings, and veteran O’Day, in a limited basis at the end of 2019, offered signs that he can recapture his past Baltimore brilliance after battling hamstring and forearm injuries.


None of Melancon, Greene, Martin or Smith was even with the Braves as of July 29, 2019, but Atlanta successfully addressed what had been a problem area with an aggressive approach at the Trade Deadline and in free agency. Now the Braves have a good bullpen ... I think.

7 -- Mets
Closer: Edwin Díaz
Key setup men: Dellin Betances, Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia

The bullpen was a definite weakness for the Mets in 2019, but there is reason to be optimistic for a turnaround. Díaz probably won’t be as good as he was in 2018 with the Mariners (1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP), but, given his stuff and strikeout rate and the paltry .207 expected batting average against him last season, his overall results also aren’t likely to be as bad as they were in 2019 (5.59 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), either.

The Mets are also hoping for a return to form from Betances, who missed essentially all of 2019 with shoulder, lat and Achilles injuries. He had five consecutive 100-strikeout seasons from 2014-18, and it’s not inconceivable that, if healthy, he can be dominant again. A bounceback is also in order for Familia, who, '19 blip aside, is usually reliable for quality innings. While hoping for more from those guys, the Mets will basically hope for more of the same from Lugo, who has a 2.68 ERA and 144 ERA+ in 181 1/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Because of the pedigree of the arms involved, the Mets should have a good bullpen ... I think.

8 -- A’s
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Primary setup men: Joakim Soria, Jake Diekman, Lou Trivino

A perfect example of how maddening bullpens can be. It’s not only difficult to predict if they’ll be any good; sometimes it’s hard to know if they were any good after the fact! The 2019 A’s led the Majors in blown saves (30), so they must have had a bumbling bullpen, right? Well, actually, no. The A’s were top 10 in MLB in ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio, fielding independent pitching, expected weighted on-base average, WHIP, homers per nine, ERA+, etc.


Hendriks’ absurd season (1.80 ERA, 240 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP) helped skew those stats, no doubt. But that’s the point: He’s really good. The Steamer projections (available at FanGraphs.com) peg him to be the second-most valuable reliever in baseball in 2020, after Hader. And that’s enough to open the door to the possibility that the A’s will rate well again overall. Soria, Diekman, Trivino and Yusmeiro Petit have been fantastic at one time or another, and J.B. Wendelken could get meaningful opportunities. So the A’s should have a good bullpen ... I think?

9 -- Astros
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Primary setup men: Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith, Chris Devenski

Houston will have to account for the loss of Will Harris to the Nationals in free agency. That’s a substantial loss. But in Osuna, the Astros still have a closer who has posted a 0.91 WHIP and a 6.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 103 innings over the past two seasons. And primary setup man Pressly, now fully recovered from knee surgery last August, has logged a 1.85 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 81 appearances since arriving in a midseason trade in 2018.


Smith dealt with an Achilles issue last year, but was reliable – a 1.80 ERA in 25 innings – when healthy and has been a reliable reliever for the better part of a decade. There’s hope that a slimmed-down Devenski will get back to his All-Star form from 2017. Josh James and Bryan Abreu are young arms who can impact the 'pen if they’re not in the rotation. So even without Harris, the Astros should have a good bullpen ... I think.

10 -- Dodgers
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Primary setup men: Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Pedro Báez

This is another speculative inclusion on this list. Jansen set an especially high bar for himself in 2016-17 and wasn’t able to reach that level in 2018-19. Nevertheless, he’s saved at least 30 games in six consecutive years. Jansen and Kelly paid a visit to the Driveline Baseball performance training facility this offseason to try to improve the action on their offerings. And while Kelly has had wide variations in results in recent years, his stuff is still eye-catching. Treinen is as intriguing a bounce-back candidate as any reliever in baseball, given the elite level he reached in 2018 (0.78 ERA in 80 1/3) before a return to earth in 2019 (4.91 ERA in 58 2/3 innings). He’s recovered from a stress reaction in his back. Báez has struck out at least 25 percent of batters faced in four of the past five seasons.

Anyway, after adding Mookie Betts in his walk year, you know the all-in Dodgers will leave no stone unturned when it comes to improving their 2020 team in-season. So the Dodgers should have a good bullpen ... I think.

*Honorable mention
*I guess … anybody? Because honestly, who knows what unforeseen stalwarts will spring up or who will be hot (or not) in this short burst of a season?

By Anthony Castrovince @castrovince
July 13, 2020

A season unlike any other will begin with six five-way ties for first place on July 23 and a schedule geared entirely around regional travel. All it takes is a hot week or two -- maybe an unexpected boost from an unheralded player or previously unproven prospect -- to totally upend everything we thought possible in 2020.

Because baseball is inherently unpredictable, my lists of the top 10 lineups, rotations and bullpens were subject to change (and argument) before the coronavirus pandemic dramatically altered the MLB landscape.

Now? Now we’re in unchartered and wavering waters, friends. Hang with ‘em.

For this lineup list, one stat I’ll cite frequently is weighted runs created plus (wRC+). This quantifies run production with important external factors (ballparks and the offensive environment) taken into account, with 100 being the league average -- so a 120 wRC+ is 20 percent better than league average, while an 80 is 20 percent worse.

This is important to note, because a team like the Rockies will always rate well in terms of runs scored (ninth in MLB last year) but didn’t rate nearly as well in wRC+ (26th). The context matters. (You can read all about this in my book, “A Fan’s Guide to Baseball Analytics.")

With that in mind, these are the 10 lineups that look best… for now.

1 -- Dodgers

1) Mookie Betts, RF
2) Max Muncy, 1B
3) Justin Turner, 3B
4) Cody Bellinger, CF
5) Corey Seager, SS
6) Joc Pederson, LF
7) Matt Beaty, DH
8) Will Smith, C
9) Gavin Lux, 2B

The focus is understandably on the MVPs in the leadoff and cleanup spots, but don’t lose sight of the overall complexion here. No. 2 hitter Muncy has 70 homers and a .927 OPS over the last two seasons, and Turner (No. 3) has posted wRC+ marks anywhere from 123 (above-average) to 158 (excellent) in each of the last six seasons. You’ve got Seager -- a 2016 National League MVP Award finalist finally entering a season healthy -- lurking in the No. 5 spot. And don’t sleep on Lux, who has one of the highest-rated hit tools of any prospect in the game.

Elsewhere, the Dodgers mix and match a lot from their bloated bench to gain the matchup edge within games. And they are plenty deep enough to handle the addition of the DH role, with multiple viable options for it on a daily basis.


2 -- Twins

1) Max Kepler, RF
2) Jorge Polanco, SS
3) Nelson Cruz, DH
4) Josh Donaldson, 3B
5) Eddie Rosario, LF
6) Miguel Sanó, 1B
7) Mitch Garver, C
8) Luis Arraez, 2B
9) Byron Buxton, CF

It would be naïve to expect the Twins to duplicate their rate of production from 2019, when they set the MLB home run record for a team. New addition Donaldson is 34 and Cruz is 40, so the Twins are banking on age not catching up to them. Were defense considered in this conversation, the Twins wouldn’t rank this high, and it will be interesting to see how home run-reliant teams fare if the pitchers are ahead of the hitters after a brief Summer Camp.

But every member of the Twins’ starting nine is projected by Steamer (available at FanGraphs.com) to post a wRC+ mark that is better than the league average, and utility man Marwin Gonzalez gives the Twins 10 such players who figure to play regularly. Take the Bomba Squad and add Donaldson, and you’ve got something special.


3 -- Astros

1) George Springer, CF
2) Alex Bregman, 3B
3) José Altuve, 2B
4) Carlos Correa, SS
5) Yordan Alvarez, DH
6) Yuli Gurriel, 1B
7) Michael Brantley, LF
8) Josh Reddick, RF
9) Martín Maldonado, C

Not facing the wrath of many or any opposing fans could be a benefit for an Astros club that was receiving a ton of public scrutiny prior to the March shutdown. But it’s still anybody’s guess how a team with a target on its back handles the pressures of 2020.

On paper, though, Houston has an argument to be No. 1 or No. 2 on this list. The Astros led the Majors in wRC+ last year, and they obviously retained one of the deepest and most balanced lineups, with both patience and power. A full season of Alvarez, who had a historic rookie year after arriving in June, provides added upside, as does the possibility that Kyle Tucker blossoms and begins to assert himself in right field.


4 -- Yankees

1) DJ LeMahieu, 2B
2) Aaron Judge, RF
3) Gleyber Torres, SS
4) Giancarlo Stanton, DH
5) Gary Sánchez, C
6) Brett Gardner, LF
7) Luke Voit, 1B
8) Aaron Hicks, CF
9) Gio Urshela, 3B

This delay bought time for Judge (stress fracture of right rib), Stanton (right calf strain) and Hicks (Tommy John surgery) to get healthier. But even if durability becomes an issue again, the Yankees have the depth to handle adversity, as we saw in 2019 when LeMahieu (136 wRC+), Urshela (132), Mike Tauchman (128) and Voit (126) took on unexpectedly prominent roles.

Whether those guys can deliver similar results in a new season is an unknown, but it seems reasonable to suspect that Torres’ star is just beginning to shine after he posted a 125 wRC+ in 604 plate appearances at age 22. Even when battling injuries last year, Sánchez (116) put up particularly positive production for his position, and Miguel Andújar’s return from right shoulder surgery makes him an interesting option at multiple spots.


5 -- A's

1) Marcus Semien, SS
2) Matt Chapman, 3B
3) Matt Olson, 1B
4) Khris Davis, DH
5) Ramón Laureano, CF
6) Mark Canha, LF
7) Stephen Piscotty, RF
8) Sean Murphy, C
9) Franklin Barreto, 2B

The A's essentially return the group that posted the fifth-highest team wRC+ mark (107) in the Majors last season. It’s an underrated cast, as tends to be the case in Oakland.

Even though second base is a question, this is an all-world infield in which Semien (third) and Olson (sixth) ranked in the top 10 among qualifiers at their position in wRC+ last season, while Chapman was 12th. Davis returning to his homer rate of old -- he hit north of 40 from 2016-18 -- after a down year would augment the effort. Laureano is so far known mostly for his unbelievable arm, but he had a .358/.411/.679 slash in 125 plate appearances in the second half and upped his launch angle last season, leading to a jump in homers.


6 -- Mets

1) Jeff McNeil, 3B
2) Pete Alonso, 1B
3) Michael Conforto, RF
4) J.D. Davis, LF
5) Robinson Canó, 2B
6) Yoenis Céspedes, DH
7) Brandon Nimmo, CF
8) Wilson Ramos, C
9) Amed Rosario, SS

For the first time in a long time, there’s at least as much reason to be intrigued and optimistic about the Mets’ offense as their starting staff. That’s a credit to Alonso coming off a rookie season for the ages (Major League-leading 53 homers), McNeil coming off All-Star output of his own (.318/.384/.531 slash), Conforto coming off his best full season (33 homers, 29 doubles), Davis proving a revelatory pickup (.895 OPS, 45 extra-base hits) and Rosario putting up a strong second half (.319 average, .351 OBP), among other factors.

Imagine if Nimmo can get back to his 2018 level of production, when he had a 148 wRC+ that ranked fifth among qualified outfielders in MLB and/or if Canó turns back the clock. Hey, maybe they’ll even get something out of Céspedes, too. The addition of the DH suits this squad well.


7 -- White Sox

1) Tim Anderson, SS
2) Yoán Moncada, 3B
3) José Abreu, 1B
4) Eloy Jiménez, LF
5) Yasmani Grandal, C
6) Edwin Encarnación, DH
7) Nomar Mazara, RF
8) Leury García, 2B
9) Luis Robert, CF

There is danger in: A) Assuming a new-look lineup will congeal as hoped and B) Assuming a bunch of youngsters will assert themselves all at once. But what the heck? Let’s do both of those things with a White Sox team that has seven regulars projected by Steamer to post wRC+ marks above league average -- Jiménez (122), Encarnación (122), Grandal (119), Abreu (117), Moncada (115), Robert (110) and Mazara (106).

That list doesn’t even include Anderson, who had a .335/.357/.508 slash and 130 wRC+ in a breakthrough 2019, or Nick Madrigal, who is one of the best pure hitting prospects in MLB (ranked No. 40 overall by MLB Pipeline) and is knocking on the door at second base.


8 -- Cubs

1) Kris Bryant, 3B
2) Anthony Rizzo, 1B
3) Javier Báez, SS
4) Kyle Schwarber, DH
5) Willson Contreras, C
6) Jason Heyward, RF
7) Ian Happ, LF
8) Albert Almora Jr., CF
9) Jason Kipnis, 2B

Hey, the gang’s still here. Despite many offseason trade rumors to the contrary, the Cubs retained the makings of a really stout lineup. Granted, it’s a lineup that has arguably underachieved the last two seasons. But even in the course of underachieving, it has managed to post the ninth-highest wRC+ in the Majors during that span (tying for ninth in 2019). It will be interesting to see how or if Bryant’s move to leadoff impacts things, because the .677 OPS the Cubbies got from that spot last year really hampered their offense.

Two X-factors for this team are Steven Souza Jr., who was limited by injury to just 72 games total the last two years but could share right field with Heyward, and Nico Hoerner, the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline. Hoerner’s a high-contact bat with good speed who could be getting the second-base at-bats before long.


9 -- Red Sox

1) Andrew Benintendi, LF
2) Xander Bogaerts, SS
3) Rafael Devers, 3B
4) J.D. Martinez, DH
5) Alex Verdugo, RF
6) Christian Vázquez, C
7) Mitch Moreland, 1B
8) Jackie Bradley Jr., CF
9) José Peraza, 2B

Hey, the gang’s… not all here. But the departure of Betts doesn’t stop the Boston bunch from posing a threat because of the nucleus of Martinez (142 projected wRC+, via Steamer), Devers (129) and Bogaerts (123). Devers and Bogaerts both ranked in the top four in the Majors in extra-base hits last season. Vázquez emerged as one of MLB’s more productive catchers.

That’s not to say there aren’t questions elsewhere. To ultimately justify this spot on the list, the Red Sox will need to get positive production from Verdugo (projected for a 119 wRC+). He arrived while recovering from a stress fracture in his back but is operational now.


10 -- Angels

1) David Fletcher, 2B
2) Mike Trout, CF
3) Anthony Rendon, 3B
4) Shohei Ohtani, DH
5) Justin Upton, LF
6) Albert Pujols, 1B
7) Jason Castro, C
8) Andrelton Simmons, SS
9) Brian Goodwin, RF

That Trout-Rendon-Ohtani grouping looks pretty tremendous, and it would look even better if we knew Ohtani was going to hit every day (having him as a stud pitcher once a week is a pretty good trade-off, though). All three of those guys are projected for a wRC+ north of 130 (Trout, of course, is in another stratosphere, at 173).

A bounceback year for Upton after an injury-riddled 2019 would add a lot of meat to the middle of the order. La Stella’s the only other Angel projected to be above-average offensively, but none of us can know what this team will get from toolsy prospect Jo Adell (No. 6 overall per MLB Pipeline), who has serious star potential and is coming soon to right field.


Honorable mention -- Blue Jays

1) Bo Bichette, SS
2) Cavan Biggio, 2B
3) Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF
4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
5) Teoscar Hernández, RF
6) Randal Grichuk, CF
7) Travis Shaw, 3B
8) Rowdy Tellez, DH
9) Danny Jansen, C

Look, the Braves boast Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman, and they brought in Marcell Ozuna after Donaldson departed. The Tribe has Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez, and potentially big power from Franmil Reyes. The Nats have one of the game’s great young hitters in Juan Soto. The Padres have a nice speed and power blend fronted by Fernando Tatis Jr. The Reds are coming off an aggressive offseason that included the additions of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. The Rays are better-equipped offensively than many might realize.

The point is, a lot of teams have an interesting argument to be on this list if this or that breaks right and if their stars play like stars.

But a Toronto team with all kinds of upside in Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Gurriel is the one I had the hardest time leaving out of the top 10. All four of those guys are 26 or younger (in fact, the Blue Jays’ average age for their projected lineup is 26) and all four showed spectacular flashes in 2019. In general, young position players might be in the best position to handle this weird schedule with a shortened second spring. So the Blue Jays might be ready to pop.