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Post by Blunashun on Apr 29, 2018 17:09:58 GMT
"I agree that it is too early to panic or consider the season a bust, but I think it is very wrong to assume things will simply get better. This team had way more risk of regression over 2017 than improvement. Especially with regard to pitching. And we are seeing that so far."
Since the team won 104 games last year, I seriously doubt many realistic fans expected 105 this season. But they brought back the same core. Why would they regress significantly? Once you reach the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you won 95 or 104 games during the regular season.
"With starters that struggle to go six innings the bullpen has got to be much better for this team to win. The FO has done a nice job of running out re-treads and shuttling guys back and forth from the minors to make the pen work in previous years, but there is no reason to be optimistic that we'll see that strategy work again this year. Especially true if Kenley doesn't get back to being Kenley."
Why would we assume there's no reason to be optimistic? When was Morrow called up last season? The end of May? Who might be this season's Morrow? We'll see. No one expected that out of Morrow in 2017.
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Post by jeremyv98 on Apr 30, 2018 1:44:27 GMT
"I agree that it is too early to panic or consider the season a bust, but I think it is very wrong to assume things will simply get better. This team had way more risk of regression over 2017 than improvement. Especially with regard to pitching. And we are seeing that so far." Since the team won 104 games last year, I seriously doubt many realistic fans expected 105 this season. But they brought back the same core. Why would they regress significantly? Once you reach the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you won 95 or 104 games during the regular season. "With starters that struggle to go six innings the bullpen has got to be much better for this team to win. The FO has done a nice job of running out re-treads and shuttling guys back and forth from the minors to make the pen work in previous years, but there is no reason to be optimistic that we'll see that strategy work again this year. Especially true if Kenley doesn't get back to being Kenley." Why would we assume there's no reason to be optimistic? When was Morrow called up last season? The end of May? Who might be this season's Morrow? We'll see. No one expected that out of Morrow in 2017. Issues with the teams pitchers due to the short offseason. I do expect the bats to turn around. Pitching is a real issue though. |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 30, 2018 2:56:05 GMT
Issues with the teams pitchers due to the short offseason. I do expect the bats to turn around. Pitching is a real issue though. Really? Hmmm. Didn't the Cubs have a good off-season because they picked up Darvish & Morrow? Weren't they both in the World Series? Neither one did well. May be a good thing we let them go. The Dodgers lost 4-2 today too, btw. They've allowed 116 runs so far. That puts them middle of the pack. Team ERA is 3.88. That too is middle of the pack. |
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Post by 88bulldog on Apr 30, 2018 16:01:28 GMT
"I agree that it is too early to panic or consider the season a bust, but I think it is very wrong to assume things will simply get better. This team had way more risk of regression over 2017 than improvement. Especially with regard to pitching. And we are seeing that so far." Since the team won 104 games last year, I seriously doubt many realistic fans expected 105 this season. But they brought back the same core. Why would they regress significantly? Once you reach the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you won 95 or 104 games during the regular season. "With starters that struggle to go six innings the bullpen has got to be much better for this team to win. The FO has done a nice job of running out re-treads and shuttling guys back and forth from the minors to make the pen work in previous years, but there is no reason to be optimistic that we'll see that strategy work again this year. Especially true if Kenley doesn't get back to being Kenley." Why would we assume there's no reason to be optimistic? When was Morrow called up last season? The end of May? Who might be this season's Morrow? We'll see. No one expected that out of Morrow in 2017. Issues with the teams pitchers due to the short offseason. I do expect the bats to turn around. Pitching is a real issue though. Football is the game for you.... Stick with it!! |
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zevo
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Post by zevo on Apr 30, 2018 17:11:46 GMT
"I agree that it is too early to panic or consider the season a bust, but I think it is very wrong to assume things will simply get better. This team had way more risk of regression over 2017 than improvement. Especially with regard to pitching. And we are seeing that so far."
Since the team won 104 games last year, I seriously doubt many realistic fans expected 105 this season. But they brought back the same core. Why would they regress significantly? Once you reach the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you won 95 or 104 games during the regular season. Seems logical to me that Bellinger and Taylor might drop off some from amazing rookie years. Seager's elbow makes him more likely to produce less this year compared to last. Was last year a breakthrough for Puig or an anomaly? Forsythe should improve, but the upside is limited. JT should be JT. LF should be a net improvement. C should be about the same. So I see our 1,2 and 4 hitters as probably dropping off somewhat from 2017, and the rest of the lineup improving a little YOY.
"With starters that struggle to go six innings the bullpen has got to be much better for this team to win. The FO has done a nice job of running out re-treads and shuttling guys back and forth from the minors to make the pen work in previous years, but there is no reason to be optimistic that we'll see that strategy work again this year. Especially true if Kenley doesn't get back to being Kenley."
Why would we assume there's no reason to be optimistic? When was Morrow called up last season? The end of May? Who might be this season's Morrow? We'll see. No one expected that out of Morrow in 2017.
Blanton was a huge part of the pen in 2016, and Morrow in 2017. But I think depending on a re-tread pitcher to do that every year is very risky. Hell, hitting on 2 out of 3, assuming someone doesn't step up this year, is really impressive. I just don't think that can be the plan every year. |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 30, 2018 18:04:47 GMT
"Seems logical to me that Bellinger and Taylor might drop off some from amazing rookie years. Seager's elbow makes him more likely to produce less this year compared to last. Was last year a breakthrough for Puig or an anomaly? Forsythe should improve, but the upside is limited. JT should be JT. LF should be a net improvement. C should be about the same. So I see our 1,2 and 4 hitters as probably dropping off somewhat from 2017, and the rest of the lineup improving a little YOY."
Bellinger's power has dropped off so far. That & his strikeouts. His batting average has gone up. It seems pretty obvious he's trying to cut down on his K's & will find a happy median somewhere along the way.
Taylor is 12-43 / .279 / .340 / .425 in his last 10 games. 5 doubles, 1 triple & 1 homerun. He might already be turning it around.
This is also not taking into account Grandal playing for a contract (C should be about the same?) & Pederson playing for his career. If any outfielder goes down for an extended period, Verdugo is playing for a job.
That leaves Seager, which I agree with him being a concern.
But if the team wins 98 games or 105, they're still taking the division.
"With starters that struggle to go six innings"
Which team doesn't have that problem? Please name a team with 3 starters that go 7.0 innings each.
"the bullpen has got to be much better for this team to win."
Granted. Morrow was called up May 29th last year.
"The FO has done a nice job of running out re-treads and shuttling guys back and forth from the minors to make the pen work in previous years, but there is no reason to be optimistic that we'll see that strategy work again this year. Especially true if Kenley doesn't get back to being Kenley."
Five straight division titles would disagree with that theory.
"Blanton was a huge part of the pen in 2016,"
And the Dodgers knew when to cut bait.
"and Morrow in 2017."
Who got closer's money from the Cubs.
"But I think depending on a re-tread pitcher to do that every year is very risky."
Like Blanton & Morrow?
"Hell, hitting on 2 out of 3, assuming someone doesn't step up this year, is really impressive. I just don't think that can be the plan every year."
Five straight division titles.
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zevo
Rookie
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Post by zevo on Apr 30, 2018 19:23:36 GMT
"But I think depending on a re-tread pitcher to do that every year is very risky."
Like Blanton & Morrow?
"Hell, hitting on 2 out of 3, assuming someone doesn't step up this year, is really impressive. I just don't think that can be the plan every year."
Five straight division titles.
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The first three of those division titles featured Kershaw throwing 220+ innings per year, and winning 2 cy-youngs and finishing 3rd the other year and Greinke throwing 200 innings per year with three top-10 cy-young finishes.
In 2016 and 17 the team shifted to more reliance on bullpen. Blanton and Morrow were huge. My point, which I think is obvious, is that you can't expect a Blanton or Morrow every year. It is too tough to do. And with the starting rotation getting worse, until Buehler becomes a permanent fixture (I hope), the pressure on the pen is even higher. Kershaw's HR rate 2017-18 is double his career rate. He's slipping, at least a little, adding more pressure.
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 30, 2018 19:32:05 GMT
"But I think depending on a re-tread pitcher to do that every year is very risky." Like Blanton & Morrow? "Hell, hitting on 2 out of 3, assuming someone doesn't step up this year, is really impressive. I just don't think that can be the plan every year." Five straight division titles. ----------------------- "The first three of those division titles featured Kershaw throwing 220+ innings per year, and winning 2 cy-youngs and finishing 3rd the other year and Greinke throwing 200 innings per year with three top-10 cy-young finishes." Kershaw threw 198.1 innings in 2014. Greinke threw 177.2 innings in 2013. "In 2016 and 17 the team shifted to more reliance on bullpen. Blanton and Morrow were huge." And nothing was expected of either. "My point, which I think is obvious, is that you can't expect a Blanton or Morrow every year." ^^^ "It is too tough to do. And with the starting rotation getting worse, until Buehler becomes a permanent fixture (I hope), the pressure on the pen is even higher. Kershaw's HR rate 2017-18 is double his career rate. He's slipping, at least a little, adding more pressure." Didn't MLB hit an all time high of homers last year? Wasn't there talk of juiced baseballs & harder wood used in the bats? |
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Post by speedcity on Apr 30, 2018 20:01:47 GMT
"But I think depending on a re-tread pitcher to do that every year is very risky." Like Blanton & Morrow? "Hell, hitting on 2 out of 3, assuming someone doesn't step up this year, is really impressive. I just don't think that can be the plan every year." Five straight division titles. ----------------------- The first three of those division titles featured Kershaw throwing 220+ innings per year, and winning 2 cy-youngs and finishing 3rd the other year and Greinke throwing 200 innings per year with three top-10 cy-young finishes. In 2016 and 17 the team shifted to more reliance on bullpen. Blanton and Morrow were huge. My point, which I think is obvious, is that you can't expect a Blanton or Morrow every year. It is too tough to do. And with the starting rotation getting worse, until Buehler becomes a permanent fixture (I hope), the pressure on the pen is even higher. Kershaw's HR rate 2017-18 is double his career rate. He's slipping, at least a little, adding more pressure. True, we shouldn’t expect a reliever to come out of nowhere three years. But when it happens a couple years in a row, it’s something that people will naturally expect to happen. Just like we shouldn’t “expect” our favorite baseball team to make the post-season 6 years in a row. Yet, here we are expecting it happen because we have a very good FO and an ownership group willing to spend money. So as a result we are all “expecting” something we really shouldn’t be. |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 30, 2018 20:53:12 GMT
Btw - the 2013 Dodger bullpen featured guys like Paco Rodríguez (22 years old & had pitched in 11 major league games before then), Brandon League (who failed miserably) & Matt Guerrier (who we traded mid-season). Ronald Belisario had done well the year before. Not so much so in 2013. Howell had a surgically repaired elbow or shoulder? I forget.
2014 brought us Jamey Wright (4.35 ERA & 1.41 WHIP. Friedman had released him from Tampa Bay just two months prior), a bounce-back season from Brandon League (who had a 5.30 ERA & 1.55 WHIP the year before), Howell, Brian Freaking Wilson (who Ned had given a 10 million dollar extension to & was rewarded with a 4.66 ERA & 1.61 WHIP), Paul Maholm (4.84 ERA & 1.56 WHIP) & Chris Perez (4.27 & 1.36).
2015 - Juan Nicasio (3.86 & 1.56), Yimi Garcia (who did reasonably well), Pedro Baez (who did reasonably well also), Howell (1.43 ERA & 1.39 WHIP suggests a lot of inherited runners scored), Chris Hatcher (who did okay) & Adam Liberatore (4.25 & 1.18). We picked up Jim Johnson mid-season (the deal included Alex Wood), & he gave us a 10.13 ERA & 2.04 WHIP in 23 grueling games.
The constant in all this was Kenley Jansen.
Maybe we shouldn't act like cobbling a bullpen together is so strange & unusual.
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Post by truedodger on May 3, 2018 16:01:05 GMT
Kershaw has been great. But, I am on the side that would be fine with not re- signing him.
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Post by speedcity on May 3, 2018 18:05:30 GMT
Kershaw has been great. But, I am on the side that would be fine with not re- signing him. Without even knowing what he is looking for in terms or contract length? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2018 12:08:25 GMT
Kersh is great....except in the most important games late in the postseason. That's a huge weakness. Do I want to spend $35mil a year for 6yrs? Grudgingly, yes.
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Post by 88bulldog on May 4, 2018 14:03:25 GMT
Kersh is great....except in the most important games late in the postseason. That's a huge weakness. Do I want to spend $35mil a year for 6yrs? Grudgingly, yes. Game 7 WS. 4 IP 2 H 2 BB 0 R Pretty important game... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2018 15:20:33 GMT
Look deeper, this year and prior.
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