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Post by clyde714 on Apr 16, 2018 20:09:48 GMT
It's interesting to follow the comments of the various posters here as to their thoughts about the Dodgers' chances this year...
In one camp, there are those who are very concerned about the performance of the current roster - or perhaps I should say "lack of performance". This "current roster's lack of performance" group grows increasingly worried every day that here we are with about 8.5% of the schedule completed and our boys in blue are swimming in the NL West gutter. This is a very active group and is already suggesting roster changes, line-up changes, coaching changes, etc. This group, though not yet ready to sound the death knell for the Dodgers, seems to recognize that without changes, the Dodgers fortunes in 2018 are not so good. This group expects actions NOW to right the ship. They also live and die with every pitch, and probably go to bed every night after a loss with a stomach ache. This is a very passionate group.
Then in the other camp, there's the "wait and see" group. This group seems to rely on prior year statistics to "predict" this year's results ("predict" may be too strong a term, as most of those in this camp won't go so far as to "predict" anything with any degree of certainty; they would just rather wait and see). It's interesting to note that a lot of these predictions are based on teams that had different rosters, different coaches, different schedules, etc. Even when the rosters are almost the same as the prior year, they seem to ignore the fact that because the players are older, their reaction times are increasing and their bodies are more prone to injury. One peculiar quirk about this camp is that they like to point out the turnarounds that certain teams have experienced in the past, such as "The team started 5-10 yet still won 100 games". True statements! - after all, this camp loves to quote statistics from prior seasons - yet they never quote the statistics that don't support their arguments, like those of the teams that never improved ("They started 5-10 and finished 55-107"). Odds are that there are a lot more teams that never recovered; thus the overall odds of recovery for any team is less than its odds for recovery. Campers in this group know this, but they prefer to be selective about the stats they quote so they can maintain their "wait and see" attitude. This group probably gets a good night sleep every night, win or lose, because they know that their statistics are on their side and it's "only a matter of time". This is a much more relaxed group.
The two groups rarely see eye-to-eye and will thus dig in and defend their position at all costs. It's not unusual for a camp1 guy to say "Smith went 0 for 5 last night, is 1 for 25 in the last 5 games, it's time to get rid of the bum" and a camp 2 guy to respond "Well, his lifetime BA is .302, his OPS is .835, and his OPS+ is 125." Both are right, of course, but the camp 1 guy is using current achievements to predict future performance whereas the camp 2 guy tends to ignore current achievements and instead focuses on prior achievements to predict future performance. Who's right?
As can be expected, both camps declare victory at the end of the season, no matter how the team finishes. If the team does well, the first camp says "See? If they hadn't done this and that and the other thing, the team would have crashed". The second camp says "See? We told you that they would get hot in the middle of the year and win a bunch of games". If the team doesn't do well, then of course the opposite happens. Either way, both camps retreat to their respective corners for the off season, knowing they were right the whole year long...
You know which camp you're in...
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 16, 2018 20:18:24 GMT
"Even when the rosters are almost the same as the prior year, they seem to ignore the fact that because the players are older, their reaction times are increasing and their bodies are more prone to injury." Grandal, Bellinger, Seager, Taylor, Puig, etc.  |
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Post by speedcity on Apr 16, 2018 20:26:21 GMT
I rarely cite career stats, they are pretty useless. Sorry for not fitting in to your stereotype.
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 16, 2018 20:29:28 GMT
I rarely cite career stats, they are pretty useless. Sorry for not fitting in to your stereotype. You're not passionate enough.  |
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Post by 88bulldog on Apr 16, 2018 20:48:08 GMT
I think the camps have been incorrect defined here.
In one camp you have the guys who actually understand baseball, they get that the season is extremely long and there will be ups and downs. That this happens to every single team in every single season. This group is extremely rational, make excellent points, give meaningful examples and are generally highly intelligent folks.
In the other camp you have those with the football season mentality, that the season is over in April if you start poorly. These guys do the same thing every single year, go into a complete state of panic whenever there is any kind of slump. They are even known to do this when the team has a 20 game lead in September. This camp is called the Chicken Littles, also sometimes affectionately called the Nellies. They are also special in their own way.
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Post by Bklyn_LA on Apr 16, 2018 21:24:42 GMT
In the words of the Prisoner (that excellent Show):
“I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered! My life is my own.”
In other words; I will not accept any one-thing as absolute, and both camps are viable as there are elements that apply to the situation at hand and then there are elements that do not, and I resist to be in one or, the others category as to maintain flexibility:)
But like all things only |TIME| will tell!
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Post by laker8la on Apr 16, 2018 22:10:59 GMT
In the words of the Prisoner (that excellent Show): “I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, or numbered! My life is my own.” In other words; I will not accept any one-thing as absolute, and both camps are viable as there are elements that apply to the situation at hand and then there are elements that do not, and I resist to be in one or, the others category as to maintain flexibility:) But like all things only |TIME| will tell! This. Not everything is so black and white. I would equate it to being a Republican vs a Democrat. I never understood how one party could universally adopt the same stances on political issues all while the other party believed universally the exact opposite, on seemingly every issue! If someone asks me if I am a Republican or a Democrat, I tell them I am neither. I take each issue independently, and on some of them I take the conservative approach, and on others I take the liberal approach. I am the same way with the Dodgers. I realize that the season is long and there will be peaks and valleys, but I also realize that anything can happen and nothing is given. Just because the Dodgers have won the division six years in a row, or because they have gone on 42-8 runs in past seasons, doesn't mean it is going to happen again. I also realize that management has done a wonderful job of replenishing the farm system and has built a very competitive major league roster, so I am grateful. But, that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every decision they make. Every decision they make has consequences. I question some of those decisions. But don't get it twisted, I'm rooting for them all the way and I am grateful for the position the Dodgers are in! |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 16, 2018 22:45:51 GMT
"or because they have gone on 42-8 runs in past seasons," You seem fixated on this. Since it was me who first brought it up, the only conclusion is that this thread was meant for me. Thank you. Flattering. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2017-schedule-scores.shtmlThat's last year. You no doubt panicked when the Dodgers were 10-12 on April 26th. Then they won four in a row, & 12 out of 15. But wait! There's more. They lost three in a row! Tear the team part you say? Then you would have missed winning 11 of the next 13. June 5th-7th they lost another three in a row. This simply won't do. Who do we trade? I have an idea. Why not just win 56 of the next 67? Yup. That's 56-11. An .836 winning percentage. 42-8 is .840%. So this was just about as good as 2013, only more sustained? Glad we didn't clean house then. Uh-oh. They then lost 16 of the next 17. How are the Angels doing? But I'm a Dodger fan, dammit! They closed out the season 11-6 (including a four game losing streak) & swept the Dbacks, then downed the Cubbies 3 games to 1 in the playoffs. Long season. Peaks & valleys, grasshopper. You're not better than someone who doesn't fly into hysterics. You're not a more committed fan. I'm assuming we all are or we wouldn't be here. |
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Post by laker8la on Apr 16, 2018 23:03:49 GMT
"or because they have gone on 42-8 runs in past seasons," You seem fixated on this. Since it was me who first brought it up, the only conclusion is that this thread was meant for me. Thank you. Flattering. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2017-schedule-scores.shtmlThat's last year. You no doubt panicked when the Dodgers were 10-12 on April 26th. Then they won four in a row, & 12 out of 15. But wait! There's more. They lost three in a row! Tear the team apart you say? Then you would have missed winning 11 of the next 13. June 5th-7th they lost another three in a row. This simply won't do. Who do we trade? I have an idea. Why not just win 56 of the next 67? Yup. That's 56-11. An .836 winning percentage. 42-8 is .840%. So this was just about as good as 2013, only more sustained? Glad we didn't clean house then. Uh-oh. They then lost 16 of the next 17. How are the Angels doing? But I'm a Dodger fan, dammit! They closed out the season 11-6 (including a four game losing streak) & swept the Dbacks, then downed the Cubbies 3 games to 1 in the playoffs. Long season. Peaks & valleys, grasshopper. You're not better than someone who doesn't fly into hysterics. You're not a more committed fan. I'm assuming we all are or we wouldn't be here. I had no clue who had been saying that. Multiple people have, so I wasn't focusing on you. Nor was I mocking you. I'm not better than anyone, nor do I claim to be! Your defensive approach to my post is troubling because I think you took it out of context. I was saying that I am in the middle of both camps. I have patience, but I want management to put them in the best position to win every game, because they all matter, and they COULD make a difference. I am not panicking at all, but you can try to put me in that camp, if it makes you feel better. |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 16, 2018 23:15:39 GMT
"or because they have gone on 42-8 runs in past seasons," You seem fixated on this. Since it was me who first brought it up, the only conclusion is that this thread was meant for me. Thank you. Flattering. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2017-schedule-scores.shtmlThat's last year. You no doubt panicked when the Dodgers were 10-12 on April 26th. Then they won four in a row, & 12 out of 15. But wait! There's more. They lost three in a row! Tear the team part you say? Then you would have missed winning 11 of the next 13. June 5th-7th they lost another three in a row. This simply won't do. Who do we trade? I have an idea. Why not just win 56 of the next 67? Yup. That's 56-11. An .836 winning percentage. 42-8 is .840%. So this was just about as good as 2013, only more sustained? Glad we didn't clean house then. Uh-oh. They then lost 16 of the next 17. How are the Angels doing? But I'm a Dodger fan, dammit! They closed out the season 11-6 (including a four game losing streak) & swept the Dbacks, then downed the Cubbies 3 games to 1 in the playoffs. Long season. Peaks & valleys, grasshopper. You're not better than someone who doesn't fly into hysterics. You're not a more committed fan. I'm assuming we all are or we wouldn't be here. I had no clue who had been saying that. Multiple people have, so I wasn't focusing on you. Nor was I mocking you. I'm not better than anyone, nor do I claim to be! Your defensive approach to my post is troubling because I think you took it out of context. I was saying that I am in the middle of both camps. I have patience, but I want management to put them in the best position to win every game, because they all matter, and they COULD make a difference. I am not panicking at all, but you can try to put me in that camp, if it makes you feel better. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The best defense is a good offense. I never get defensive. Thanks for your concern though. Your post definitely came off as superior. Okay. It takes all kinds. I don't have a problem with it. Do you have a problem with me correcting your assumptions? Did you even address the 56-11? No. You didn't. Please do so now. Hasn't management ALWAYS put the Dodgers in the best position to win? Now we have 42-8 AND 56-11. You were worried we were too dependent on streaks. The nature of sports is streaks. It supposedly all evens out in the end. Kobe Bryant was one of the streakiest shooters I've ever seen. Would you have rather we had some plodding 15 ppg shooter who hit 50% every night? |
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jrgreene6
Legend
Married . . . With Cats
Posts: 7,438
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Post by jrgreene6 on Apr 16, 2018 23:19:58 GMT
I never went to camp as a kid and am certainly too old to go now.
I can honestly say that I’m as big a fan of the Dodgers as most here. I’ve been to just about every game they have played here in Cincy since the mid-80’s, when I became part of the full time working class and could afford to buy premium tix behind their dugout.
I went to Vero Beach multiple times and have been to dozens of games in LA, all while residing thousands of miles away most of my entire life.
I root for them and I get frustrated by them and like everyone else would LOVE to see another WS Title or ten before they throw me in the big Easy Bake.
Was I disappointed after getting to a game seven and so close last year? Of course I was!
But life goes on. I don’t think or worry about things that I have absolutely no control over - God knows I have enough of those on my own.
My Phins haven’t sniffed a Super Bowl since BEFORE the Dodgers last title. Doesn’t stop me from being a fan of either team. UC (my alma mater) and Tennessee (where I was recruited to play college ball) will probably NEVER win the NCAA FB title in my lifetime - still a fan and follow / support both.
I understand the word fan is just short for fanatic, but truly some take the word far too literally and seriously. There’s SO much more to life than sports and in my mid-50’s, I’d rather be swinging my new driver and one iron than worrying about how my team is doing in mid-April of a season they still have close to 150 games left to play.
I guess I just realize I still have a lot of things I want to do while I’m here on this rock and while I will continue to be a fan and watch my teams, their titles don’t really mean diddly squat in the grand scheme of things.
If they win, I will celebrate with them. If not, there’s always next year. And the year after that. And the year after that. You see where I’m going with this, right?
GO DODGERS!!!!
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Post by laker8la on Apr 16, 2018 23:26:31 GMT
I had no clue who had been saying that. Multiple people have, so I wasn't focusing on you. Nor was I mocking you. I'm not better than anyone, nor do I claim to be! Your defensive approach to my post is troubling because I think you took it out of context. I was saying that I am in the middle of both camps. I have patience, but I want management to put them in the best position to win every game, because they all matter, and they COULD make a difference. I am not panicking at all, but you can try to put me in that camp, if it makes you feel better. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The best defense is a good offense. I never get defensive. Thanks for your concern though. Your post definitely came off as superior. Okay. It takes all kinds. I don't have a problem with it. Do you have a problem with me correcting your assumptions? Did you even address the 56-11? No. You didn't. Please do so now. Hasn't management ALWAYS put the Dodgers in the best position to win? Now we have 42-8 AND 56-11. You were worried we were too dependent on streaks. The nature of sports is streaks. It supposedly all evens out in the end. Kobe Bryant was one of the streakiest shooters I've ever seen. Would you have rather we had some plodding 15 ppg shooter who hit 50% every night? I apologize if it came off superior, didn't mean it to be. I have no problem with streaks and I recognize the Dodgers have consistently gone on steaks in past seasons to propel them to NL West titles. I just don't want to rely on them or assume that a streak like that is coming. It's really hard to go 42-8 or 56-11. Three game winning streaks, 5 game losing streaks, those come and go every year. But a 42-8 or 56-11 streak is not something that happens frequently. It's special. It was fun when it happened. Love it to happen again, like right now would be great! But I am aware that is a long season and the Dodgers will start putting wins together in bunches. Management has done an excellent job of putting the Dodgers in a good position, on the whole. But in small quantities, one could argue that putting McCarthy on the World Series roster when he hadn't pitched in weeks (months?) was not the best decision for the team (and it backfired). IMO, I am against Joc over Toles and Font over anyone else. It's just an opinion. I take each move one at a time and judge it in my own mind and you could certainly disagree with my take. Anyhow, I don't want to derail this thread, so I will leave it at that. Again, I didn't mean to insinuate I was superior to anyone (I'm not), and I certainly wasn't directing my comments at anyone in particular, definitely not you. |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 16, 2018 23:26:36 GMT
What JR said. I'll add I'm a Rams / Chiefs fan. My folks are from KC. When was the last time the Chiefs won a Super Bowl? You don't just toss the towel in our your teams.
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 16, 2018 23:32:15 GMT
laker8la - you also have to take into account that you can make the correct decision & it still doesn't work out. Say Dave Roberts decides to pinch hit with someone batting .333. That means he has a 67% chance of failing. Later we can all question Roberts on his decision. But it was the right one & we would all be using 20-20 hindsight.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2018 12:27:29 GMT
I'll play. I'm in group 2. Most reliable way to predict the future is to view past results. The team the last two games I believe is more representative. I think they're just gearing up for the long fight, a little let down from last year to start . They'll be fine. Players in the wings JT, Toles, Verdugo, and Buehler.
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