Tinkles
Veteran
Pet my kitty
Posts: 64
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Post by Tinkles on Apr 17, 2018 12:58:11 GMT
"We are screwed and the end is nigh" camp.
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Post by laker8la on Apr 17, 2018 15:24:07 GMT
laker8la - you also have to take into account that you can make the correct decision & it still doesn't work out. Say Dave Roberts decides to pinch hit with someone batting .333. That means he has a 67% chance of failing. Later we can all question Roberts on his decision. But it was the right one & we would all be using 20-20 hindsight. Absolutely! I don't question decisions that make sense to me. Whether they work out or not is immaterial. I only question the decisions that make no sense to me. I didn't need to see Font crash and burn, he simply didn't earn the roster spot IMO and I questioned the roster choice. Same goes for Joc. And the funny thing is that I like Joc, he's a good kid and he's had good moments. But sometimes that's just not enough. Toles gives us the better chance to win, IMO. |
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Post by 88bulldog on Apr 17, 2018 15:55:31 GMT
If they win, I will celebrate with them. If not, there’s always next year. And the year after that. And the year after that. You see where I’m going with this, right?
__________
You mean life goes on if your team doesn't win? Even if it's really important to you that they do? Aren't things like breathing way more important anyway?
Some just can't possibly grasp that concept. Glad that I can....
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Post by clyde714 on Apr 17, 2018 18:24:29 GMT
I'll play. I'm in group 2. Most reliable way to predict the future is to view past results. The team the last two games I believe is more representative. I think they're just gearing up for the long fight, a little let down from last year to start . They'll be fine. Players in the wings JT, Toles, Verdugo, and Buehler. The trick is to figure out which past results to use for the future; going too far back or being overly selective can and will skew one's expectations. In my biz, we use past sales to help predict future demand. And to ensure we're using meaningful data, we place more weight on the recent past (in our case, the last 4 months) than we do on sales from more than 4 months ago. We also analyze anomalies (such as unexpected spikes or dips in sales) to determine if they're one-off's or should be considered in our forecasts. There's a lot more that goes into sales/demand analysis, but you get the idea. Just because you sold something yesterday does not guarantee you'll sell it again tomorrow; but there's a good chance you will. I think the expectations for baseball are similar. I do think that the "recent" period data one might use for more weight in the prediction wouldn't/shouldn't be 4 months old, but probably a much shorter time period (which is where most of the group 1 people reside). On the other hand, you can't ignore the data from earlier periods, either. There are trends in those numbers that you can't see when you just look at short-term data (which is where most of the group 2 people reside). Unlike my biz (where we sell much of the same items year-over-year, making the data apples-to-apples), the "items" (the players) in baseball do change, making apples-to-apples comparisons more challenging. I think therein lies the rub. How much of prior period performance is applicable to the current and future periods? Which data do you use and where do you draw the line? |
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Post by speedcity on Apr 17, 2018 18:32:18 GMT
I'll play. I'm in group 2. Most reliable way to predict the future is to view past results. The team the last two games I believe is more representative. I think they're just gearing up for the long fight, a little let down from last year to start . They'll be fine. Players in the wings JT, Toles, Verdugo, and Buehler. The trick is to figure out which past results to use for the future; going too far back or being overly selective can and will skew one's expectations. In my biz, we use past sales to help predict future demand. And to ensure we're using meaningful data, we place more weight on the recent past (in our case, the last 4 months) than we do on sales from more than 4 months ago. We also analyze anomalies (such as unexpected spikes or dips in sales) to determine if they're one-off's or should be considered in our forecasts. There's a lot more that goes into sales/demand analysis, but you get the idea. Just because you sold something yesterday does not guarantee you'll sell it again tomorrow; but there's a good chance you will. I think the expectations for baseball are similar. I do think that the "recent" period data one might use for more weight in the prediction wouldn't/shouldn't be 4 months old, but probably a much shorter time period (which is where most of the group 1 people reside). On the other hand, you can't ignore the data from earlier periods, either. There are trends in those numbers that you can't see when you just look at short-term data (which is where most of the group 2 people reside). Unlike my biz (where we sell much of the same items year-over-year, making the data apples-to-apples), the "items" (the players) in baseball do change, making apples-to-apples comparisons more challenging. I think therein lies the rub. How much of prior period performance is applicable to the current and future periods? Which data do you use and where do you draw the line? Who is citing career stats? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2018 18:48:40 GMT
I believe you need motivated talent to succeed in anything. I don't really believe in luck much, good or bad. I believe we have plenty of talent, and the motivation comes from within, management (all with a good track record), and the fans. We're in good shape, short and long-term imo. |
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Post by clyde714 on Apr 17, 2018 21:14:14 GMT
I believe you need motivated talent to succeed in anything. I don't really believe in luck much, good or bad. I believe we have plenty of talent, and the motivation comes from within, management (all with a good track record), and the fans. We're in good shape, short and long-term imo. Well put regarding the "motivated talent". And I second the notion about luck... |
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Post by clyde714 on Apr 17, 2018 21:18:44 GMT
The trick is to figure out which past results to use for the future; going too far back or being overly selective can and will skew one's expectations. In my biz, we use past sales to help predict future demand. And to ensure we're using meaningful data, we place more weight on the recent past (in our case, the last 4 months) than we do on sales from more than 4 months ago. We also analyze anomalies (such as unexpected spikes or dips in sales) to determine if they're one-off's or should be considered in our forecasts. There's a lot more that goes into sales/demand analysis, but you get the idea. Just because you sold something yesterday does not guarantee you'll sell it again tomorrow; but there's a good chance you will. I think the expectations for baseball are similar. I do think that the "recent" period data one might use for more weight in the prediction wouldn't/shouldn't be 4 months old, but probably a much shorter time period (which is where most of the group 1 people reside). On the other hand, you can't ignore the data from earlier periods, either. There are trends in those numbers that you can't see when you just look at short-term data (which is where most of the group 2 people reside). Unlike my biz (where we sell much of the same items year-over-year, making the data apples-to-apples), the "items" (the players) in baseball do change, making apples-to-apples comparisons more challenging. I think therein lies the rub. How much of prior period performance is applicable to the current and future periods? Which data do you use and where do you draw the line? Who is citing career stats? That question is answered whenever you see the word "lifetime" or "career" used when quoting someone's stats. It comes and goes as needed to support the poster's argument. |
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Post by speedcity on Apr 17, 2018 22:07:24 GMT
Who is citing career stats? That question is answered whenever you see the word "lifetime" or "career" used when quoting someone's stats. It comes and goes as needed to support the poster's argument. I asked who. |
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Post by Blunashun on Apr 17, 2018 22:33:05 GMT
"It comes and goes as needed to support the poster's argument." So do faulty numbers, impaired memories & implausible scenarios.  |
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Post by clyde714 on Apr 17, 2018 23:43:40 GMT
That question is answered whenever you see the word "lifetime" or "career" used when quoting someone's stats. It comes and goes as needed to support the poster's argument. I asked who. Sorry, I don't keep a diary of such things. Just suggesting you keep an eye out in future posts, and then you'll know. |
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Post by speedcity on Apr 18, 2018 1:12:18 GMT
Sorry, I don't keep a diary of such things. Just suggesting you keep an eye out in future posts, and then you'll know. Your post made it sound like this was happening daily, yet you can’t think of a single person that does what supposedly everyone in this “group” does. |
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Post by 88bulldog on Apr 18, 2018 2:58:07 GMT
Interesting....
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jrgreene6
Legend
Married . . . With Cats
Posts: 7,440
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Post by jrgreene6 on Apr 18, 2018 5:09:15 GMT
If they win, I will celebrate with them. If not, there’s always next year. And the year after that. And the year after that. You see where I’m going with this, right? __________ You mean life goes on if your team doesn't win? Even if it's really important to you that they do? Aren't things like breathing way more important anyway? Some just can't possibly grasp that concept. Glad that I can.... Yeah - imagine that! If my teams win a title, I’m happy. But if not, considering I have a great wife, a nice home that’s almost paid for, 2 nice cars & a Harley, take great vacations every year and a couple of excellent & well performing 401-k’s, I’m STILL happy. GO DODGERS!!! |
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Post by 88bulldog on Apr 18, 2018 13:28:38 GMT
Makes perfect sense. I have all those things too. On top of that I can watch my favorite team play every day.
Life is good.
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